Interview with Fitleap-CVO Lars Müller: Establishing mass-capable blockchain applications for the fitness industry

FitLeap wants to launch a new fitness app on the market. Users will be rewarded for their fitness activities – FitLeap offers an incentive system for sporty people. A blockchain is to be used to store whether users have actually followed certain activities. The data packages then store fitness data such as the number of steps or calories burned. In an interview with Fitleap-CVO Lars Müller.

With FitLeap, a new fitness app will soon be launched on the market. How do you want to differ from the countless other fitness apps.

What does this Bitcoin news have to do with Blockchain?

Fitness apps on the Bitcoin news market have one thing in common: they collect your data and store it centrally in order to market it or, in the worst case, sell it to third parties on the Bitcoin news. With Fitleap, every user has full control over what happens to their data.

Your data is encrypted on your mobile phone and you decide whether you want to share it or not. We use blockchain technology to prove that you have really done certain activities (e.g. 10,000 steps). It’s like proof that you’re really fit. How exactly does it work? A hash or fingerprint of each data packet (steps, burned calories, etc.) is stored on the blockchain.

Every time new data is added, we check whether old data has been changed. If cheating has occurred, as with the Bitcoin blockchain, no new transaction is accepted. One can also imagine that there is no Bitcoin in your wallet, but the proof of your healthy lifestyle. We call this Health Asset.

It is also particularly important that we dock to all existing fitness apps. So you can continue to use your favourite app and – ideally – exchange already collected data directly with us for rewards. This makes us an “add-on” to existing apps on the market and our incentive and gamification approaches bring activity back into the apps of our interface partners – a real win-win.

And you certainly want to bring out the Bitcoin formula that will make you a lot of money?

For our users there will be a Bitcoin formula token as an incentive for their activity. However, this can only be earned through physical activity and redeemed in our FitLeap Marketplace for your favourite products. Ergo, we do not sell tokens in a token sale.

In order to provide our company with more capital, we are working with industry experts, lawyers and other blockchain companies to develop a regulated security token that allows investors to directly participate in our entrepreneurial success in monetary terms. We will distribute a dividend, which is defined by our turnover, to all investors via a Smart Contract. More details can be found in our weekly live streams in our Facebook group.


Interest in Bitcoin startups on the part of venture capitalists

Behind the interest in Ethereum is the fact that some companies in the crypto-currency industry implement Ethereum as part of their products.

Stephens pointed out that some Blockchain Capital portfolio companies such as Bitfinex, Kraken and BitGo now offer Ethereum services. GoCoin, a company that makes payments in Bitcoin, Litecoin and Dogecoin possible, will also support Ethereum soon.

Many companies accept Bitcoin code

Instead of simply selling chocolate, many companies now have chocolate and vanilla in their Bitcoin code portfolio. According to Demirors, some companies in the DCG portfolio should follow a similar path and build a Bitcoin code infrastructure for service providers in the crypto ecosystem.

“Many of the first companies in this ecosystem are still existing Bitcoin companies. They could use their operational and strategic business capabilities with banks, regulators and other stakeholders to build a robust global network for the exchange, saving and management of ether.

Such arguments were used by the financial sector to illustrate how more block-chain-based technologies could enter the market.

Existing growth Bitcoin code potential

The interviewees have different opinions regarding the growth potential of Bitcoin code start-ups. DCG’s Scher believes that an important cornerstone of their investment strategy is the assumption that Bitcoin is both a safe value and a tool for fast, arbitrary value transfer. According to Scher Ethereum, Bitcoin cannot yet keep up with this.

However, Scher Ethereum sees potential as a platform for smart contracts, identity management and other technology industries. “Startups that build such products and services should consider using Ethereum as a basis in the future. It is easy to use in this context and has wonderful features. In this context, Etherem is a wonderful development for us and the blockchain ecosystem.”

According to Dimorors, the Ethereum community could one day overtake the Bitcoin community in terms of the number of developers. Stephens also sees the budding interest in Ethereum as positive. Ultimately, it is only now that venture capitalists are beginning to analyze the potential for investments in this area.

“It is still too early for final judgements. We have met with a dozen companies, only a handful of which are worth investing in. But that will change.”


In a parable about a million US dollars

The first step for the modelling is to create a fit based on the time between 17 July and 29 November 2017. As a function we assume the following:

Course = K0*(1+gradient)^(t-t0)

The function that best fits the price trend would be one where the distance between this model and the actual price is smallest. One then obtains the following relationship, represented logarithmically:

The data of the fit model can now be used to determine a value for 31.12.2020. And indeed! The best fitting fit, extrapolated by the end of 2020, even leads to 23 million US dollars. So far one could say that John McAfee’s forecast is very conservative.

The problem with such a view is that we focused at the top on the development during a bull run. If the data are taken into account from July 2017 to the present day, “only” half a million people are left.

This study could be carried out in more detail

How does the forecast for 31.12.2017 develop depending on the starting time? For the next analysis, the fit is extrapolated to 31.12.2017, whereby the fit is based on data between a variable starting point and today’s date.

Of course, the data can only be considered to a limited extent; from the beginning of 2018, the statistics are too small, which means that forecasts fluctuate considerably. But before that the graph looks like this:

As one can see, the forecast “one million US dollars per bit coin” is currently not tenable at least over a fit based on an exponential price development. If only data since the beginning of 2017 are taken into account, the forecast is tenable, but after that the forecast price drops dramatically. In this respect, it is to be feared that McAfee’s claim was primarily based on the bull market.

Watch out, McAfee: Only a small probability for a million!

Another approach was introduced a few months ago: Using random walks and the Monte Carlo method, you can model estimates of the Bitcoin price. In this article, the aim was to obtain a price statement for only one year, but the method can also be used for larger time forecasts. Let us therefore consider the distribution of simulated price developments up to 31.12.2020. The histogram shows the probability of achieving certain prices over the same period:

If you take the last 2,000 prices into account, there is actually a certain probability that a price of one million euros will be reached at the end of 2020. How high is this? Unfortunately only at 3 percent.

Time will tell whether John McAfee should worry about his crown jewels. What is certain is that his bold forecast is not impossible, but quite unlikely.